Dragon Tournament: Bronzetalon on 6-3-2014 (IOS)

[chaselance]

Acrobat x night elf mmb

[Guardian452]

If we presume that the lowly Level 1 dragon - in this case a Level 1 Acrobat - has a 10% chance to win against even the strongest dragon, the Level 1 Acrobat dragon has about a 50% / 50% chance of winning at least once in seven battles. Likewise, if a player has seven straight battles with a 90% chance to win, the player has about a 50% / 50% chance of losing at least once over those seven battles.

I do feel the pain of anyone who loses to a Level 1 dragon in the early rounds of a tournament, but a 90% chance to win is not the same as a 100% chance to win.

% Chance to Cumulative % to
Battle # Lose Battle Win at Least Once
1 90% 10.00%
2 90% 19.00%
3 90% 27.10%
4 90% 34.39%
5 90% 40.95%
6 90% 46.86%
7 90% 52.17%

I'm sorry but I can't seem to make the table work right. The column are "Battle #", "% Chance to Loss Battle" and "Cumulative % to Win at Least Once".

The Poisson Distribution takes me back to 3rd Year Stats.

[blabla9337]

you guys scared me with all your epic dragons loosing in round 1! managed first try (magic) with level 6 night dragon.
good luck everyone!

[night123b]

This is my first tournament, and I'm kinda scared!! I don't really have any super rares except clockwork.
I did beat acrobat with my level 10 firestorm though

[basbousayla]

If we presume that the lowly Level 1 dragon - in this case a Level 1 Acrobat - has a 10% chance to win against even the strongest dragon, the Level 1 Acrobat dragon has about a 50% / 50% chance of winning at least once in seven battles. Likewise, if a player has seven straight battles with a 90% chance to win, the player has about a 50% / 50% chance of losing at least once over those seven battles.

I do feel the pain of anyone who loses to a Level 1 dragon in the early rounds of a tournament, but a 90% chance to win is not the same as a 100% chance to win.

% Chance to Cumulative % to
Battle # Lose Battle Win at Least Once
1 90% 10.00%
2 90% 19.00%
3 90% 27.10%
4 90% 34.39%
5 90% 40.95%
6 90% 46.86%
7 90% 52.17%

I'm sorry but I can't seem to make the table work right. The column are "Battle #", "% Chance to Loss Battle" and "Cumulative % to Win at Least Once".

a question if the chances is cumulative in each of the strikes? and across each round?

[laraelyn]

rd 1 night elf beat Acrobat with BmB but just barely
my Dark Angel is evolving into level 10 will be done in the next 90 minutes glad to have him for this tournament.
I have 3 champs now that are all epic, so I am glad for another Champ.
I barely made the circus event finished it last night, I have so many new dragons to evolve, still do not have the last two world event dragons evolved to epic yet, would love to try for some of the zodiac dragons they look so awesome, so many dragons, love all the new one's wish they would let us buy another evolving temple/chamber, my back log of dragons to evolve is crazy.
Hibiscus:85 Glass:22

[AJImmer]

a question if the chances is cumulative in each of the strikes? and across each round?

The "% Chance to Loss Battle" is the percentage of an individual battle. The "Cumulative % to Win at Least Once" considers the number of round of battle - in other words if you just consider one round, the opponent has a 10% chance to win. But if you look at two rounds, the opponent has a 19% chance to win at least once over the two rounds. When looking at seven rounds of battle, the opponent has a little over 50% chance of winning at least once.

[LadyAggie06]

Round 3: Epic Atlas defeated Wisp 1 - mmb+

HB: 69

[MakJulos]

The "% Chance to Loss Battle" is the percentage of an individual battle. The "Cumulative % to Win at Least Once" considers the number of round of battle - in other words if you just consider one round, the opponent has a 10% chance to win. But if you look at two rounds, the opponent has a 19% chance to win at least once over the two rounds. When looking at seven rounds of battle, the opponent has a little over 50% chance of winning at least once.

I find it disturbing that a lvl1 common dragon has 10% chance to beat a lvl10 super rare champion, i think that's just dumb, BUT - that is how it's set up in this game so i can't really whimper about it too much, if it's a big problem for me i can just quit!

So, a silly loss against a weak opponent here and there, i accept that, the thing is when you fight a row of weaker dragons, and that sissy 10% or smthn percentage several times causes a lost round during these battles - i'm sure you can explain it all mathematically and nice, but that doesn't make battling any more fun imo. I just think there are too many of these stupid failed rounds for it to be good fun, no matter if the "illogic" actually is logic or not!

As for the ongoing tournament, i'm in it still lol, not upset yet...but probably jinxed it just there, hmm....

[Kevin0908]

2) Daisy(1) def by Atlas(10) m+++
Battles:2 Hibiscus:79 Glass:72